America’s failure in Iran is a lesson in leadership

It’s impossible to overstate just what an unmitigated disaster the US war with Iran has been. Six months on, Trump has accomplished none of the objectives that prompted him to go to war.

Iran’s nuclear program, damaged already by last year’s airstrikes, had not posed an immediate threat, even by the assessments of the US intelligence community. Not to forget that the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and the US in 2015 provided a far more rigorous and detailed framework to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions, only to be abandoned by Trump three years later.

To make matters worse, the mullah regime is now said to hold a tighter grip on power than ever before. And the pro-democracy movement that led hundreds of thousands to take to the streets in recent years has been brutally crushed. Human rights groups report that more than 900 Iranians have been executed this year already, including many who had joined the protests in the hope for freedom, justice, and a better life. Thousands more have been imprisoned.

The failure of this US government’s approach to force an outcome through use of overwhelming firepower, targeted assassinations and economic coercion is perhaps most evident in the ongoing tussle over the Strait of Hormuz, once one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. The status of that critical chokepoint is clear: Iran’s rulers remain very much in control of the Strait, their menacing rhetoric creating just enough of a chilling effect that shipping volumes remain a tiny fraction of what they used to be. That, in turn, continues to send massive ripples through the world economy, perpetuating the uncertainty that has seen global consumer prices – from fuel to food – go up considerably for most of the year.

And as negotiations are nowhere to be seen, it is clear that Operation Epic Fury has really been an epic flop, in the sad tradition of other failed US interventions of the past.

So, how do we get out of this mess?

I am not at all opposed to the idea of applying economic pressure to force warring parties to the negotiating table in an attempt to work things out. And I wish the same kind of determination to inflict an “economic D-Day” had been applied to Russia from day one of its brutal aggression against Ukraine. But these efforts require a significant amount of diplomacy, including open conversations with allies, neutral powers and foes alike. In short, they require flexible leadership and the willingness to listen and to make concessions where necessary. To date, the US seems to have neither the will nor the capacity to do that. Instead, its brute force doctrine has found its limits in Iran's resilience and rather low-cost ability to cause disruption throughout the entire region.

I tend to agree with those who have described this dreadful conflict as “America’s Suez moment,” comparing the Hormuz crisis to Britain’s failed intervention to retake the Suez Canal from Egyptian control in 1956. The Suez Crisis had many layers, but it was widely seen as symbolic of a fading empire no longer able to secure its interests by the means it was most familiar with. The US is at risk of meeting a similar fate. As Trump and his administration stumble from one poorly planned tactic to the next, it’s perhaps time to refocus on what is really needed – listening to allies and not alienating them, and building relationships based on trust and respect. If not, I’m afraid America will face a long and painful decline, leaving a vacuum others are just too eager to fill.